Sahel on the Brink: Nigeria Faces Salient Threat as Juntas Struggle
Abuja, Nigeria – The central Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all ruled by military juntas, are grappling with multifaceted conflicts as various rebel movements and jihadi groups challenge state authority, adding fuel to a dire humanitarian crisis.
The epicentre of global terrorism “has now conclusively shifted out of the Middle East and into the Central Sahel region,” according to the Global Terrorism Index. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 47% of global terrorism deaths in 2023, more than South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa combined.
Five of the ten countries most affected by terrorism in 2023 are in Africa: Burkina Faso (first place), Mali (third), Somalia (seventh), Nigeria (eighth), and Niger (tenth). Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, is threatened by the instability in its neighbouring countries.
“If Niger collapses or continues to lose central authority, it could allow Jihadists in the Sahel to enter Nigeria more freely,” said Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst at Oxford Analytica. “Both IS-Sahel and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) probably have ambitions to expand into Nigeria and other coastal states but are constrained at the minute by distance and the fight against the Malian, Burkinabe, and Nigerien governments.”
The central Sahel has a long history of political instability, armed rebellions, and bad governance. Insurgents have taken control of large parts of the region, fighting against government forces and local populations for resources. Civilians are often caught in the middle.
Despite long-standing international and regional efforts to combat insurgents, these groups continue to expand their presence across the region. Traditional anti-terror campaigns have failed to stop the violence, and a broken relationship with the main political and economic bloc in the region has further exacerbated regional tension.
On January 28, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This move could hurt regional cooperation in curbing the activities of jihadists, bandits, and transnational crime syndicates, worsening insecurity, especially in northern Nigeria.
The three Sahelian countries’ exit from ECOWAS could also jeopardize two important projects: a 284-kilometre railway connecting Nigeria and Niger, and the ambitious 4,100-kilometer Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that could deliver up to 30 billion cubic meters of Nigeria’s natural gas to Europe annually.
International alliances are also in flux, as military juntas in the three Sahel countries have cut ties with former colonial power France and befriended Russia, buying weapons and deploying fighters with the mercenary Wagner Group.
The United States has suspended the countries’ free trade access to US markets following the coups. Large-scale human rights issues have triggered laws prohibiting the provision of US military or training assistance to countries of concern.
Russia’s involvement in the region is also under scrutiny. In August, Russia withdrew 100 paramilitary officers from Burkina Faso to support the war in Ukraine. This move has raised concerns about the potential empowerment of insurgent groups in the region.
Security experts warn that Nigeria must prioritize regional cooperation and strengthen its security ties with neighboring countries to mitigate the threat of terrorism.
“The sooner these countries retrace their steps and repair their strained alliances, the better for everyone,” said Bulama Bukarti, security expert and senior fellow at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Nigeria’s influence in West Africa has been waning due to domestic security and economic challenges. The country must re-establish its leadership role in ECOWAS and engage in constructive dialogue with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to address shared security threats.
As the conflict in the Sahel region continues to escalate, Nigeria’s national security hangs in the balance.
